Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?
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The answer: yes you should switch. The first door has a 1/3 chance of winning, but the second door has a 2/3 chance. If you change 2 times out of 3 you get a car.
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